14: Masters picks, plus RNGC vs Augusta National
And a revolutionary plan for the Par-3 Tournament.
It’s difficult to pinpoint one thing that makes the Masters so special. My joy is derived from the whole spectacle, which becomes more all-consuming, multi-faceted and surprising each year. This is due to how Augusta National organizes and manages every minute part of the experience, which results in the closest approximation of golf heaven on earth.
From the website and films to the astonishing Masters app, which succeeds in delivering delights that I never knew I wanted or would ever find compelling. From the lack of overt branding to the food and beverages on ANGC property being sold at a fraction of the prices charged by other major sporting events. From the banning of mobile phones inside the gates so that the patrons really watch (thank you Green Jackets) to the sense that you know the course more intimately each year, despiting having never set foot on the grounds, the Masters continues to set the bar.
I thought about all these things this weekend, during a mammoth six-hour stint giving RNGC its first proper pimping of the year, a sun-kissed afternoon that was happily passed mowing, strimming, seeding, feeding and over-seeding the greens, and watering the two new tees. The course is really starting to take shape, which you can see below.
At work, I have been looking at every player in this year’s Masters field. I’ve studied their recent Masters form, picked out highlights from this season the one before, their best Masters finishes, number of times they’ve missed cuts at Augusta, their stroke averages at the Masters and low rounds.
I’ve also been tracking the weekly shot-by-shot tournament data from those who play on the PGA and DP World Tours via my job at Clippd. We don’t yet get the LIV shot data so the jury remains out on whether the test provided by many of the venues in the schedule or the playing of short events with loud music (hold on, they might be onto something…) is negatively impacting its players’ competitive edge.
Read my write-up on every player in the 2025 Masters at Clippd.com
Below I’ve listed my 10 picks for this year, based on all the above and a bit of knowledge acquired over decades of consuming this tournament. There are no major surprises in the list of likely winners simply because these two players have repeatedly shown their superiority in recent times. If I had to put my house (and therefore the golf course) on who is be inside the top 10 come Sunday evening, these are my guys.
Please note: Betfair could and probably do fund their staff Christmas party on the proceeds of my dismal betting on the majors.
The Big Two
Scottie Scheffler
He’s not yet back to his best after his cooking-related injury (something a Spinal Tap drummer might well have died of), but you sense the apex winner of recent times, not to mention serial Augusta specialist, is ready to blow. He’s shot under par in 75% of his 20 rounds in the Masters and won two of the last three. Scheffler is right at the top of the charts in Clippd for approach and around the green performance, and over the last 20 tournament rounds his putting is better than all but a handful of players. But what strikes me again and again about Scheffler is how effectively he minimises his mistakes. Last year, he hit 10 poor shots (Clippd gives every shot a Shot Quality score between 0 and 200) in four rounds. In the final round, he hit one. That’s Nicklaus-esque levels of course management and execution under pressure.
Rory McIlroy
If you can ignore the last 14 years of spiralling hope, recurring disappointment and emotional scar tissue, it’s hard not to be on Rory this year. He’s won twice in the US already, including his second Players Championship over a tough Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass when he wasn’t even close to his best with the driver. Rory is still the best off the tee when he’s short of his peak and now his putting is very good and trending. He has 34 sub-par rounds in his 16 Masters appearances and 15 in the 60s, so he knows how to go low. He’s also a far better and more rounded player than the one who threw the Masters away by almost hitting a chalet a millions miles left of the 10th. Of course it goes without saying (but I’ll do so anyway), we have been here before. Many times. I’m just not sure I can not be on Rory the year he finally wins his Masters.
When his iron play is on, he plays well and the numbers show he’s near to its imperious best right now
The Closest Contenders
Collin Morikawa
I’m not Morikawa’s biggest fan (I think it’s the shoes he puts on his tiny dog) but it’s still satisfying to see the best players knocking off major titles and building great careers. This winner of a PGA (albeit in Covid) and an Open Championship has shown that he likes Augusta National. One poor score over the weekend cost him last year, as it has done in recent times. He’s not won a major since that early hot streak when he erupted out of college and straight into the top echelons of the pro game, but his scoring average is under par across five Masters appearances. Added to that, he’s made the cut each time and was in contention last year. Morikawa has two runners-up finishes this season, which is a slight concern given his current inability to close, and when his iron play is on, he plays well . The numbers show he’s near to its imperious best right now. If he can put himself in the right parts of the fairway, his pooch could be stepping out in more Jimmy Choos.
Justin Thomas
The Clippd data has borne out just how well Justin Thomas has bounced back from his slump. He’s been trending for some time now and other than McIlroy, he’s arguably been the best player on the PGA Tour in the first third of this season. But he’s yet to add to the 15 titles he’s won in the US. Currently very solid off the tee, JT’s irons are excellent and he’s an absolute magician with his wedges. His putting is on a strong upward trend, too. Despite two missed cuts in the last two years (the first and only times he’s not been around for the weekend), I like the number of low rounds Thomas has shot at Augusta. He’s clearly feeling good about his game and if he can tap into the vibes that have brought him a 66 and three rounds of 67 in the past, and avoid an awful first round like the one he shot at The Players (before bouncing back with a 62), Thomas has the pedigree, experience and game for a Green Jacket.
Jon Rahm
This pick is not based on data but on these factors: 1. Rahm loves Augusta. His T45 last year as defending champion was comfortably his worst showing (and his first since joining LIV); 2. He seems to be in contention in every LIV event and had a long streak of under par rounds going until, like most of the field, Doral’s Blue Monster took a bite out of him last week; 3. He’s not missed a cut in eight Masters appearances. 4. His stroke average is more than a shot under par (which is terrific). 5. His lowest round is 65 (-7); 6. He’ll have something to prove (and probably be quite angry); 7. The best Spanish golfers tend to win the Masters twice (Seve and Ollie).
Yeah but no: Bryson DeChambeau, Joaquin Niemann.
There are certain courses that make players feel and see differently and you sense that Augusta National is one such place for Smith.
Each Ways
Cameron Smith
It feels like the quintessential Aussie has dropped off the planet since joining LIV but Smith remains an elite shotmaker whose imagination and ability to go deep when it matters most are evidenced both in his Open Championship win at St Andrews and in his impressive record in the Masters. His game could have been designed for Augusta. He’s finished in the top 10 in five of the last seven, and half of the 32 rounds he’s played have produced sub-par scores. There are certain courses that make players feel and see differently and you sense that Augusta National is one such place for Smith. I also read that he and his wife have just had a baby, and the ‘nappy factor’ has long been a thing in golf betting circles. Victory would mean he’d join an elite group alongside Nicklaus, Woods and, er Zach Johnson by claiming major titles over the Old Course and Augusta. Currently available at long odds.
Shane Lowry
I was fortunate to cover the 2019 Open at Royal Portrush where Shane Lowry delivered victory for Ireland to the chants of ‘Ole ole’ from huge and jubilant galleries (and probably set a new record for Guinness consumption at the town’s legendary Harbour Bar). Lowry steamrollered the field on the Dunluce Links that year and has added a number of eye-catching victories since then, without quite managing to add to his major tally. I do like where his game is currently at, both according to the Clippd data and the consistency of his results this season. He has top-four finishes in all four major championships, which means he’s battle-hardened, and if he can get his putter to work like his irons so often do, he’ll be there or thereabouts.
Russell Henley
Question: If Russell Henley were to physically assault you in the street in broad daylight would you be confident of identifying him in a line-up (ignoring the giveaway that the top third of his head would be as pale as a corpse)? I’d suggest not. Henley is as anonymous as Coldplay’s drummer and very probably as wealthy. However, he’s not doing himself any favours this season, upping his profile by taking down the Arnold Palmer Invitational against a strong field on a tough course. It was his fifth career win. Henley is really good with his irons and around the greens, and he has five top-25 finishes in the last eight majors. Whisper it but he is also quietly good around Augusta, despite not hitting the ball very far with his driver.
Robert MacIntyre
I first became aware of Bob MacIntyre at the Open in Portrush and since that eye-catching display in his first major, he’s shown that he’s a man who relishes the big occasion. There was the duel against Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open, which McIlroy won with an outrageous long iron shot on the 72nd hole in a near hurricane. There was the emotional first PGA Tour win with his Dad, a greenkeeper no less, on the bag. There was the Ryder Cup where he played some quite appalling stuff in his first match but still left Marco Simone with an unbeaten record. And there was his emotional win in the Scottish Open last year. The evidence is mounting up. MacIntye is an old-fashioned shotmaker whose eye seems to suit Augusta. He tends to play well on difficult courses and has proven he can tough it out, which added to the five top-10 finishes he’s recorded on both tours this year, means he’s got to be worth a punt.
Do I think Tommy Fleetwood is going to win? Probably not. Do I think he’ll finish in the upper echelons on the leaderboard? Probably.
Tommy Fleetwood
Do I think Tommy Fleetwood is going to win? Probably not. Do I think he’ll finish in the upper echelons on the leaderboard? Probably. Fleetwood is one of the game’s true flushers, with a swing that’s simple, highly repeatable and makes a beautiful sound at impact. He’s also got great imagination with his short game. Doubts persist over whether he holes enough makeable putts when big tournaments are on the line. Certainly he’s not won even close to the number of times that his talent warrants but he is getting closer at the Masters, witnessed by his T3 last year. One of the nicest men in golf has performed solidly if not spectacularly this season, particularly at Bay Hill on a tough set-up. The good news is his putting is trending strongly right now.
Close but no cigar (for them or members of Betfair staff at their 2025 Christmas party): Corey Conners, Akshay Bhatia, Sepp Straka.
Low Amateur
Justin Hastings
Josele Ballester of Arizona State and Spain is the best amateur golfer in the field but he’s been strangely quiet since returning to college golf in 2025. I can picture Hastings, who hails from the Cayman Island, has a collegiate tournament victory this year with San Diego State, and topped the field at the 2025 Latin-America Amateur, sharing his thoughts with a vibrating Jim Nantz in the Butler Cabin on Sunday.
How to fix the Par-3 Tournament
It’s time that the Masters Par-3 Tournament was given the respect it deserves. Players’ wives, girlfriends and children should be banned immediately. Instead of it being an annual curtain-raiser that delivers a boon to small businesses producing even smaller white boiler suits and that nobody wants to win, it could become a real tournament for past champions and older players who shouldn’t really be taking the places of those with a chance (however remote) of winning. I’d watch Watson, Crenshaw, Couples, Langer, Olazabal, Singh, hell, I’d even watch Player duking it out with something on the line. Even better if they were doing it in fancy dress.
Them and Us: Augusta National vs RNGC
Course Maintenance Staff During Tournament
Augusta National: 70 (including, many volunteers). / RNGC: 1 (plus two volunteers).
Bridges
Augusta National: 3 (dedicated to Sarazen, Hogan and Nelson) / RNGC: 2 (dedicated to saving players from losing shoes in mud).
An Iconic Waterway
Augusta National: Rae’s Creek is named after John Rae, an Irish trader who settled in the area in 1734. / RNGC: Ray’s Creek is named after nobody called Ray. Or indeed Raymond. In fact its real name is Norton Brook.
Animal Attraction
Augusta National: To help with the war effort, turkey and cattle were raised on the Augusta National grounds in World War II. / RNGC: In an act of war, three moles laid seige to the RNGC grounds in ‘The first Subterranean Intifada’.
Honorary Starters
Augusta National: Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson and a man who’s son and caddie once used the occasion to shamelessly promote a brand of golf balls / RNGC: A man who has never knowingly paid a green fee and on more than one occasion pocketed a sleeve of golf balls and a KitKat for his son.
Leaderboards
Augusta National: Ten white leaderboards around the course, manned by volunteers who change the number by hand. / RNGC: Two homemade blackboards in the animal shelter, manned by drunken idiots who use chalk to scribble numbers that nobody can read.
Debutant champions
Augusta National: Only three players have won on debut — Horton Smith (1934), Gene Sarazen (1935) and Fuzzy Zoeller (1979) / RNGC: Only two players have won on debut — Christy Worthington and Paul Coles (2022).
Former champions and their projects
Augusta National: Multiple-time former Masters champion Tiger Woods and his firm are to design a nine-hole short course better known as ‘The Patch’ in Augusta. The renovated course is scheduled to open next year during Masters week. The course logo pays tribute to a former cabbage patch. / RNGC: Multiple times former Patch and RNGC champion David Ford and his firm designed a nine-hole very short course known as ‘The Patch’. in North Devon. The course opened every year for one weekend in August. The course logo was a cabbage.
[Cease and desist letters have been sent]
Accommodation for Amateurs
Augusta National: The Crow’s Nest is a 30-by-40-foot room atop the clubhouse available as living quarters for as many as five amateurs during the Masters. There are four bedrooms, a games table and a television. / RNGC: The back garden is a 40-by-30-metre lawn next to the house available as a campsite for as many as 50 amateurs during the RNGC Invitational. There’s one chemical toilet.
The Men in Charge
Augusta National: The Masters Chairman has really great hair / RNGC: The RNGC President has a bald patch.
Enjoy the Masters. I certainly will.
Excellent as ever dan. The course is looking great (RNGC I mean) What make you of V Hovland’s chances?